On passenger flow modeling for high-speed railways

Alexander Misharin, Oleg Pokusaev, Dmitry Namiot, Dmitry Katzin

Abstract


The article deals with issues related to the modeling (forecasting) of passenger traffic for high-speed railways. The article is a survey of research related to forecasting the number of passengers for new high-speed railways. We consider work in which the principles of modeling (predicting) passenger traffic for high-speed railways in Russia are described. They are regression models, where explanatory variables are mainly based on data for the economic development of regions adjacent to the railway. The paper discusses the shortcomings and potential problems of this approach. Also, in the article methods of forecasting passenger traffic, used for high-speed railroads abroad are considered. They focus on the analysis of existing passenger traffic in the direction and its possible redistribution after the introduction of a high-speed railway into operation.


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